Theory: Trading With Little To No Margin
As I often do, especially when the markets are excruciatingly slow in determining when to make the next significant move, I've been thinking about Forex.Take a mental walk with me...The DOW falls from 10,000 to 5,0000 and loses 50% of it's value. It returns from 5,000 to 10,000 and gains 100% of it's value.Wait, think about that for a minute. In the normal world having the ability to gain double digit gains, per year, is considered excellent.If you are confident that an upward cycle will eventually happen, in a suitable time frame of course, then movement is valuable. If you aren't trading on margin, and you don't have the associated risk, then you can afford to look at each dip in price as an opportunity.While this may be applicable to the DOW, it is ever more applicable to the Forex markets. If you are trading with little or no margin it's simply a matter of scaling your entry and exit based on price moves. This is very similar to the gridding concept that I posted recently.However, when the margin is gone the risk is gone. You choose the price range you expect and scale your entry and exit points within it. If you must, you leave some positions in place while you recapitalize to attack another range. In fact, perhaps you simply allocate a set number of dollars per thousand pip trading range. If the price falls into a lower range you simple ante up and play within a lower range -- while your higher range positions provide interest income.However, keep in mind, it's possible that currency pairs adjust interest rate differential. This could erode or reverse the suitability of holding a pair over a long period of time.
While I don't have any pictures to show, yet, I am working on an EA that trades AUDJPY based on the market price relative to the average price of positions held.The first few passes at this type of system were pitiful. My testing starts from September of last year to now while only opening long positions. As you can imagine this is a difficult period of time for a long only system!However, late last night I was able to complete a test that showed profits.The strategy behind this EA is basically as follows:
If you've just seen a recent downward movement open an initial position.
If the price is high enough above or below your average order open price, open another.
If the current price is above your average price close your lowest and most profitable position.
Try not to open any position while in a downward movement regardless of the above rules.
Obviously, the last item mentioned is not simple, but it is the key to account survival. If you open too many positions and the market falls too far you will get a margin call.As ever, I'm basically using the AUDJPY for this. I am interested in strategies that can accumulate a safe quantity of long positions such that they pay me to wait for the eventual upturn.
As I often do, especially when the markets are excruciatingly slow in determining when to make the next significant move, I've been thinking about Forex.Take a mental walk with me...The DOW falls from 10,000 to 5,0000 and loses 50% of it's value. It returns from 5,000 to 10,000 and gains 100% of it's value.Wait, think about that for a minute. In the normal world having the ability to gain double digit gains, per year, is considered excellent.If you are confident that an upward cycle will eventually happen, in a suitable time frame of course, then movement is valuable. If you aren't trading on margin, and you don't have the associated risk, then you can afford to look at each dip in price as an opportunity.While this may be applicable to the DOW, it is ever more applicable to the Forex markets. If you are trading with little or no margin it's simply a matter of scaling your entry and exit based on price moves. This is very similar to the gridding concept that I posted recently.However, when the margin is gone the risk is gone. You choose the price range you expect and scale your entry and exit points within it. If you must, you leave some positions in place while you recapitalize to attack another range. In fact, perhaps you simply allocate a set number of dollars per thousand pip trading range. If the price falls into a lower range you simple ante up and play within a lower range -- while your higher range positions provide interest income.However, keep in mind, it's possible that currency pairs adjust interest rate differential. This could erode or reverse the suitability of holding a pair over a long period of time.
While I don't have any pictures to show, yet, I am working on an EA that trades AUDJPY based on the market price relative to the average price of positions held.The first few passes at this type of system were pitiful. My testing starts from September of last year to now while only opening long positions. As you can imagine this is a difficult period of time for a long only system!However, late last night I was able to complete a test that showed profits.The strategy behind this EA is basically as follows:
If you've just seen a recent downward movement open an initial position.
If the price is high enough above or below your average order open price, open another.
If the current price is above your average price close your lowest and most profitable position.
Try not to open any position while in a downward movement regardless of the above rules.
Obviously, the last item mentioned is not simple, but it is the key to account survival. If you open too many positions and the market falls too far you will get a margin call.As ever, I'm basically using the AUDJPY for this. I am interested in strategies that can accumulate a safe quantity of long positions such that they pay me to wait for the eventual upturn.
