also bolstered the yield,rate of the mustard-seed crop from 900 to II 00 kg per hectare. This enhanced production by 41 % to reach 30lakh tonnes in FY 2009. Uttar Pradesh: Sowing acreage of mustard seed is normally between seven lakh hectares and nine lakh hectares, and production between seven lakh hectares and 10 lakh tonnes in Uttar Pradesh. The major sowing areas of mustard seed in Uttar Pradesh are Agra, Kanpur and Lucknow, accounting for almost 65%-70% of the state's production. In the current season, total output of the state is expected to be up almost 8.9% to around nine lakh tonnes over FY 2008.
Strong gains are mainly on steady rise in sowing acreage as most wheat farmers have shifted to mustard crop along with comfortable rainfall during the monsoon period. Productivity of the mustard crop is likely to be around 1114 kg per hectare from 890 kg per hectare in the previous year.
Others: Mix production trends were reported in Madhya Pradesh, Haryana and Punjab despite higher sowing of mustard seed in the current year. Production of Haryana and Punjab was reportedly marginally down to 4.1 lakh tonnes, while Madhya Pradesh reported some gain to reach 6.5 lakh tonnes from FY 2008.
Outlook
As per market sources, arrivals of mustard seed have surpassed almost 75% of the current year's total availability. Arrivals in January were down to almost 75,000 bags against one lakh bags reported in June 2009. Arrivals are estimated to be lower in the coming days as farmers are not willing to liquidate their positions at the lower level.
Some traders are expecting that the weak monsoon leading to low water-reservoir dams in major growing states such as Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh and Punjab might discourage sowing of mustard seed. Being an irrigated crop, the mustard-seed crop needs six times the irrigation than that consumed by other oilseeds during crop formation. This requires high water-storage levels for this oilseed. Sturdy prices might prompt farmers to diversify to chana. Therefore, sowing acreage of mustard seed is expected to be lower in the current rabi season (October 2009-March 20 I 0).
On the other hand, strong buying was noticed in the physical market due to resurgence of export demand for mustard meal in the June 2009. As per latest date released by the Solvent Extractors' Association of India, exports of mustard meal were up 205% to 58,805 tonnes in June 2009 as against 19,245 tonnes reported last year in the same month. Mustard-seed prices are also getting a positive bias from palm-oil prices. Prices of palm oil are expected to remain strong on strong export demand coupled with sturdy prices of crude oil.
Spot prices of mustard seed are likely to remain supportive at the lower It;vel of around Rs 2500-Rs 2550 per quintal on steady demand for mustard meal in both the domestic and international markets coupled with diminutive arrivals at major physical markets. The National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange (Ncdex) September 2009 benchmark contract is expected to gamer some buying at Rs 530-Rs 532 per 20 kg ( Rs 2600-Rs 2650 per quintal) while selling likely to persist at Rs 560-565 per 20 kg ( Rs 2850-Rs 2900 per quintal) in the coming days.
Strong gains are mainly on steady rise in sowing acreage as most wheat farmers have shifted to mustard crop along with comfortable rainfall during the monsoon period. Productivity of the mustard crop is likely to be around 1114 kg per hectare from 890 kg per hectare in the previous year.
Others: Mix production trends were reported in Madhya Pradesh, Haryana and Punjab despite higher sowing of mustard seed in the current year. Production of Haryana and Punjab was reportedly marginally down to 4.1 lakh tonnes, while Madhya Pradesh reported some gain to reach 6.5 lakh tonnes from FY 2008.
Outlook
As per market sources, arrivals of mustard seed have surpassed almost 75% of the current year's total availability. Arrivals in January were down to almost 75,000 bags against one lakh bags reported in June 2009. Arrivals are estimated to be lower in the coming days as farmers are not willing to liquidate their positions at the lower level.
Some traders are expecting that the weak monsoon leading to low water-reservoir dams in major growing states such as Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh and Punjab might discourage sowing of mustard seed. Being an irrigated crop, the mustard-seed crop needs six times the irrigation than that consumed by other oilseeds during crop formation. This requires high water-storage levels for this oilseed. Sturdy prices might prompt farmers to diversify to chana. Therefore, sowing acreage of mustard seed is expected to be lower in the current rabi season (October 2009-March 20 I 0).
On the other hand, strong buying was noticed in the physical market due to resurgence of export demand for mustard meal in the June 2009. As per latest date released by the Solvent Extractors' Association of India, exports of mustard meal were up 205% to 58,805 tonnes in June 2009 as against 19,245 tonnes reported last year in the same month. Mustard-seed prices are also getting a positive bias from palm-oil prices. Prices of palm oil are expected to remain strong on strong export demand coupled with sturdy prices of crude oil.
Spot prices of mustard seed are likely to remain supportive at the lower It;vel of around Rs 2500-Rs 2550 per quintal on steady demand for mustard meal in both the domestic and international markets coupled with diminutive arrivals at major physical markets. The National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange (Ncdex) September 2009 benchmark contract is expected to gamer some buying at Rs 530-Rs 532 per 20 kg ( Rs 2600-Rs 2650 per quintal) while selling likely to persist at Rs 560-565 per 20 kg ( Rs 2850-Rs 2900 per quintal) in the coming days.
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